The Poker Player’s Favorite Scapegoat: Are You Just Unlucky or Is It Something Else?

Every poker player knows the feeling. You're deep in a session, bleeding chips, and all you can think is, 'things are bound to turn around.' We cling to the idea of variance, the great equalizer, the cosmic force that explains away our bad beats and cooler situations. But are we being honest with ourselves?

It's the first word every new player learns, a convenient shield for their ego when a questionable call goes wrong. We blame 'variance' for our losses but are strangely silent about it when we're on a heater, flopping sets left and right. This selective memory is a dangerous trap. This article explores the two-faced nature of poker variance, questioning why we attribute losses to bad luck but credit wins entirely to our own genius. It's time to have an honest conversation about the difference between a statistical downswing and a leak in your game.

The Great Poker Cop-Out

We've all been there. Staring at the screen, another bad beat fresh in your mind, muttering some version of the same desperate prayer: “Things are bound to turn around.” It’s the mantra of the grinder, the hope that keeps you in the game when your stack is dwindling and your sanity is frayed. And what’s the magical word we use to explain it all? Variance. Ah, variance. The poker player’s best friend and worst enemy. It’s the boogeyman that explains why your aces got cracked, and the guardian angel you pray to for a miracle river card.

But here’s the thing. For a lot of players, especially those still getting their sea legs, “variance” is just a five-dollar word for “I messed up, but I don’t want to admit it.” It’s the first piece of jargon a fish learns, and they wield it like a shield. They’ll call off half their stack with a gutshot straight draw, lose to a top pair, and then type “gg variance” in the chat. It’s infuriating, isn't it? It completely absolves them of any responsibility for a terrible play. It’s a way to protect the ego, which, let's be honest, is one of the most fragile things at a poker table.

The Hypocrisy of a Heater

It's funny how a one-way street variance seems to be. We are experts on negative variance. We can write novels about our downswings, detailing every suck-out with the precision of a crime scene investigator. But what about the other side of the coin? What about positive variance?

You almost never hear someone say, “Man, I ran so good tonight! I was just a variance machine!” No, when we're winning, it’s a different story. Suddenly, it’s all skill. “I was really in the zone,” we say. “I had a great read on the table.” “My C-betting strategy was flawless.”

I saw someone talking about this the other day. They mentioned having a ridiculous 65.5bb/100 session because they were flopping more sets than they'd seen in a week. Their friend’s immediate reaction was, “Wow, that’s not variance, that was great play!” See what I mean? It's an instant reflex. Good things happen because we are geniuses. Bad things happen because the universe is cruel.

The reality, of course, is that getting good flops has nothing to do with good play. Flopping set after set is the definition of positive variance. The skill comes in how you extract the maximum value from those monster hands, but getting dealt them in the first place? That’s just the deck loving you for a little while.

Sometimes, You Are the Variance

There's a darker, funnier side to this whole thing. For a seasoned pro, the fishy player at the table is the variance. Their unpredictable, mathematically baffling plays are what create the chaotic, beautiful, and most importantly, profitable situations. When a player calls your 4-bet with 7-2 offsuit and somehow spikes a full house on the river, that’s not just variance acting upon you; you are experiencing the human embodiment of variance. They are a random number generator in human form.

Thinking about it this way can honestly save your sanity. Instead of seeing it as the poker gods smiting you, you can see it as the cost of doing business. You are playing against someone who doesn't follow the rules of logic, and while that will sometimes lead to you losing a pot you 'should' have won, over the long run, their chaotic strategy is exactly where your profit comes from. They are the variance that fuels your win rate.

Just look at a typical online hand. Imagine a board like Queen-Nine-Four. You're sitting there, contemplating your move, and some guy with a quarter of a starting stack just shoves it all in. That moment, right there, is the heart of poker. It's a snapshot of a potential turning point. Are you ahead? Are you behind? Is this your moment for things to finally turn around after a brutal session? Your decision to call or fold is skill. The fact that this guy decided to go bananas with God-knows-what? That's the variance you're here to play against.

Finding the Truth in the Swings

So, what's the takeaway? Should we banish the word 'variance' from our vocabulary? Of course not. It’s a real, statistical phenomenon that governs a game of incomplete information. The swings are real, and they are brutal.

The real challenge is to be honest with yourself. When you take a bad beat, take a second before you scream “variance!” into the void. Could you have played the hand differently? Could you have lost the minimum instead of your whole stack? And more importantly, when you're on a heater, stacking chips like a madman, take a moment to be humble. Acknowledge that the cards are falling your way. Recognize the good luck for what it is. This balanced perspective does more than just keep your ego in check; it keeps you sharp.

If you blame every loss on bad luck, you’ll never find the leaks in your game. And if you attribute every win solely to your own brilliance, you’ll get complacent and overconfident, which is a fast track to ruin. The true path of a poker grinder is navigating that messy middle ground—acknowledging the role of luck without ever using it as an excuse.

Things are bound to turn around, yes. But it's your job to make sure you're playing well enough to be there when they do.